worldwige Chromium and nickel market conditions

  Daily Nickel/Stainless Steel Wrap-up

  • Baltic Dry Index – plus 1 to 2,713. (chart)
  • Dollar graph in lower right corner of this page – (chart of dollar index) (live java chart)
  • Headlines & leaders – (Bloomberg) Yuan Set for Biggest Monthly Drop Since ’94 as Economy Slows, Dollar Gains // Buy China Solar Stocks on Economy `Shift,’ Avoid Developers, Elegant Says // China’s Stocks Decline as U.S. Income Data Fuels Economic Growth Concern // India’s Economy Grows Most Since 2007, Adding Pressure on Rates // Japan Defends Economic Policy Steps as Yen Strengthens Anew, Stocks Slide // Thailand’s July Industrial Production Growth Slows as Global Demand Cools // Japan Issues Storm Warnings, Cancels Okinawa Flights as Typhoon Approaches // Asian Stocks Fall on Concern U.S. Economy Slowing // Gold Rallying to $1,500 as Soros’s Bubble Inflates // Europe Inflation Slows to 1.6%, Unemployment Holds at 12-Year High of 10% // German Unemployment Drops for 14th Month as Rising Exports Bolster Economy  // Most European Stocks Advance, Paring Monthly Decline; Iliad, Kerry Climb // Moderate Drinkers Live Longer Than Abstainers on Average, Study Confirms // Karl Case Sees `A Lot of Positive Stuff’ in Housing-Price Data: Tom Keene // Consumer Confidence in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast // Stocks Rise, Treasuries Pare Gains on Confidence, Housing Data
  • The Euro is now trading nearly 1/4 of 1% higher against the US Dollar, off session highs and losing ground at the moment. NYMEX crude oil is down over 3% and trading at $72.40/barrel. Gold is up over 1% and silver is up 1-2/3%. Base metals fared poorly today, all ending in the red. Indicator charts show nickel started out lower, spiked when US consumer confidence numbers were released, but fell just as sharply shortly thereafter. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $9.39/lb . Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME approved warehouses now sit just over the 118,650 tonne level after dropping overnight. Sucden’s day old chart shows trading thru last week (chart here). The Baltic Dry Index did little, gaining a single point. US markets appeared to be set for another down day when Market Watch reported “Confidence among consumers rose to 53.5 in August due to an improvement in their short-term outlook, but overall, consumers remain “apprehensive,” the Conference Board reported Tuesday.” With that, world markets still trading, bathed in red, went positive. World oceans are quite active with tropical storms, as can be seen on this map (here). You can click on the map and zoom into a specific region for details and status on each named storm. Tomorrow, we start September, and typically this signals the return of stainless steel demand after summer vacations. Whether 2010 is another typical year, remains to be seen.

  Reports

  Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments

  • (SMR) China’s steel mills produced 1.711 million tonnes of crude steel per day in the middle 10 days of August, little changed from the previous 10 days, data from the China Iron & Steel Association showed on Monday.
  • (GT) The world’s largest iron ore producer Vale SA may cut iron ore prices by about 10 percent, the first reduction in a year, indicating the miner has begun to consider demand when setting prices.
  • (FX) The Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index reached 50.1 points in August down from a figure of 52.8 in July and only fractionally above the neutral 50.0 threshold.
  • Housing Bust Makes Paying for College Harder – more
  • Immigrants Make U.S. Workers Richer – more
  • Personal Income Breakdown – more
  • No Clothes – more
  • Don’t get fooled by Bernanke – more
  • Jackson Hole Economic Symposium – pdf here
  • Quote of the Day: Double Dip or Not – more
  • Psychological Stages of a RE Bubble Market – more
  • FDIC: 829 problematic banks in second quarter – more

  Indonesia’s Antam starts up Tapunopaka nickel mine in Sulawesi – Indonesia’s Aneka Tambang, or Antam, said Tuesday that production has commenced at its 1.5 million wet mt/year Tapunopaka nickel mine in southeast Sulawesi. – more

  Second Half Remains a Big Question Mark – In its annual mid-year poll of service center executives, MCN has learned that sales are still up, inventories are still down, but there is little consensus on what to expect for the rest of the year. – more

  Key commodity prices set to spike, warn analysts – Experts argue markets are not taking into account likely sharper demand for oil and natural gas and a potential supply crisis in coal, copper and iron ore. – more

  Service Center Shipments See Slower Growth in July – The rate of growth of steel and aluminum shipments from service centers in the United States and Canada slowed in July. Inventories of both metals, expressed in terms of months of supply on hand, rose in both countries, according to the latest Metals Activity Report from the Metals Service Center Institute, Rolling Meadows, Ill. – more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 1PM in London)

  • Indicators at 7:20 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.14/lb lower, with other London traded metals also lower. NYMEX crude oil is down 1.4% and trading at $73.64/barrel. Gold is trading slightly higher, while silver is trading slightly lower at the moment. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended lower, with China off more than 4/10 of 1%. European markets are trading lower this morning, and US futures show Wall Street may continue lower after yesterday’s 141 point drop on the Dow. Futures have the Dow under the psychologically important 10,000 mark again this morning. Nickel inventories fell overnight.    
  • Bloomberg morning base metal news – more
  • LME Morning – Base metals soften on equity slide, concerns about the US economy – more

  Reports

  Commodity/Economic Comments

  • Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments – Metals pushed higher on Friday, with copper rising to its highest close since early August. We think the rally had much to do with the revision to second-quarter GDP, which came out at +1.6%, and although this was only slightly higher than expected, it nevertheless was something of a relief to investors who were expecting an even more tepid reading. Shortly after this number came out, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke – speaking at the annual Fed summit in Wyoming – said what everybody knows to be true by now, namely that the U.S. recovery has softened considerably of late. However, investors were relieved to hear Bernanke saying that the Fed was ready to initiate further quantitative easing measures if necessary, and that he did not see the economy tipping back into recession. Instead, he projected modest growth in the second half of 2010 that should pick up going into 2011. In keeping with the schizophrenic nature of the markets, Friday’s gains in equities evaporated almost in full yesterday, (LME markets were closed on Monday), as renewed concern about weak growth again weighed on sentiment. Although copper survived the brunt of the selling in COMEX trading by finishing higher, energy prices were off sharply, as were US stocks, which plunged in the last hour of trading, wiping out most of Friday’s gains despite US personal income and spending numbers that came in pretty much in line with estimates. LME metals seem to be catching up today, with declines now noted across the board. Energy prices are also lower, as is the dollar, with the yen continuing its surge to 15-year highs, ignoring limited steps the government is taking to stem its rise. US equities are called to open lower. ….. Despite the sharp technical bounces, the tone in metals remains tentative, as lingering concern about the sub-par pace of US growth is capping any prolonged advance. On the downside, however, we are seeing somewhat of a floor given the still stable pattern of Chinese intake, coupled with the fact that stocks for most of the LME metals are trending lower, a sign that excesses are not building up. …. We are at $20,675 on nickel, down $375, and seem to be turning lower on the charts. Support is at $20,200. (read Ed Meir’s complete morning base metals report here)
  • (Yieh) Taiwan’s Yieh United Steel Corp. (Yusco) and Tang Eng have both announced to lift export price of stainless steel for September.
  • (Yieh) China’s Taiyuan Iron & Steel (Tisco) has released new price for the 36th week (August 31 – September 6). The price of 304 hot rolled and cold rolled stainless steel coils was up by RMB300/ton. And the price of 430 cold rolled stainless steel coils kept unchanged for a continuous of three weeks.
  • (AMM) Stainless steel surcharges appear to be in for a reversal, with market sources anticipating an increase for October after three consecutive months of declines. But what direction they’ll take beyond that remains unclear.
  • (Xinhua) Nickel Consumption Suffers 49% Decline in July
  • Baosteel sees drop in Q3 profit – more
  • Steel and raw material prices to rise – Mr Sahit Muja – more

  Putin calls for fair nickel, copper duty formula  – Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin called for a fair formula to be developed for calculating export duty on nickel and copper, one that takes world price volatility into account. – more

  Quiet Asian Biz For Ni-Based Stainless CR Sheets – Negotiations continue inactive as a whole on export deals of nickel-based stainless CR sheets in Asia, mainly for shipments to China, in contrast with favorable growth of negotiated export deals for other stainless steel products such as bars and heavy plates.  – more

  Stainless Steel Prices To Dip In Final Quarter  – World stainless steel transaction prices have followed a general upward trend over the past twelve months. Stronger economic conditions, coupled with various government stimulus projects, boosted steel consumption. – more

  RusAl boss Deripaska arrives in Norilsk after delay – Billionaire Oleg Deripaska, CEO of the world’s biggest aluminum producer RusAl and co-owner of Russia’s largest nickel producer Norilsk Nickel, arrived in Norilsk on Tuesday in his private jet, after earlier being denied landing permission. – more

  • Putin threatens pollution fines as Norilsk shareholders move closer to ending conflict – Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has promised to levy hefty fines on nickel miner Norilsk Nickel for violating ecological norms if it does not upgrade its production facilities to reduce pollution. – more

  Courtesy AISI – In the week ending August 28, 2010, domestic raw steel production was 1,698,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 70.2 percent. Production was 1,381,000 tons in the week ending August 28, 2009, while the capability utilization then was 57.7 percent. The current week production represents a 23.0 percent increase from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending August 28, 2010 is down 1.9 percent from the previous week ending August 21, 2010 when production was 1,730,000 tons and the rate of capability utilization was 71.5 percent.

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

  • London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes – (for today’s figures see MF Global report above)
  • Today’s almost official prices here  /  Yesterday’s actual LME official prices here or here (chart)
  • Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price – available here  
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