Stainless Steel Pricing, Ferrochrome

Daily Nickel/Stainless Steel Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 1PM in London)

Dow Jones reports three month nickel closed Monday’s trading session at $6.38/lb . Indicators at 6:30 am CST today show 3 month nickel trading around $.07/lb lower, with other London traded base metals trading lower as well. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME approved warehouses rose to its 15th all time record high this month and ends 2013 reported totals at 261,636 tonnes. Metals are lower as traders take profits and close their books on 2013. The London Metal Exchange is closed tomorrow for New Years celebrations and will resume trading on Thursday.
Average price of cash nickel so far this month – $6.31/lb
Average price of LME traded nickel in 2012 – $7.95/lb / avg 2011 – $10.36/lb / avg 2010 – $9.89/lb / avg 2009 – $6.64/lb
(USGS) Metal Prices in the United States Through 2010 – pdf here
Baltic Dry Index – (current) (chart)
Dollar trading graph – (chart of dollar index) (live java chart)
Bloomberg metals morning – Lead Falls as Some Investors Sell After Industrial-Metals Rally – more
Reuters metals morning – Zinc set to be top metals performer in 2013, nickel lags – more

Reports

Philippine Metallic Mining December 2013 – more
Commodities Daily – here
Commonwealth Daily Alert – pdf here
Oakvale Daily Market Report – more
KBC Commodity Report – here
Angel Metals Fundamental Report – here
Weekly Market Report – pdf here
DNB Metals Weekly – pdf here
Mico Metals Weekly – pdf here
Hedge Equities Commodity Report – pdf here
MacNicol Morning Notes – pdf here
Alpari Global Markets Daily – pdf here
Mangal Commodities Metals & Energy – pdf here
Danske Weekly Focus – pdf here

Commodity/Economic Comments

China E-Stainless Daily Price Index – 80.23
2013 Reuters Nickel Price Forecasts – more (World Bank forecast 2013 – $8.16/lb)
China Stainless Steel Scrap Market News / Price – more
Yieh Daily Asian Stainless Steel News – more
Stainless Steel Daily Scrap Prices – more
Gerdau Steel Market Update – more
European Debt Crisis Live – more
100 Years of Stainless Steel – more
(PR) Jilin Jien Nickel Industry announces that Jien Canada Mining LTD., a wholly-owned grandson unit, sells Gerido mine exploration right in Canada at USD 32.50 million. The mine is under exploration but has not been exploited.
(NFIB) The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism went nowhere in August as the Index fell 01. points to 94.0, statistically no change. As “calm” as the Index appears, there was turmoil in the details. Job creation plans jumped 7 points to levels not seen since 2007. Yet, last month firms shed the largest number of employees in months. The overall stats are internally consistent on some dimensions as lower sales bring lower profits, but contradictory in other ways with lower job openings but huge gains in hiring plans.

Forecasts for 2014 (quotes from past articles)

Prices should average $15,500 per tonne next year ($7.03/lb), with supply exceeding demand by 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes, compared with as much as 150,000 tonnes this year, Macquarie estimated. – source
A Reuters poll in October showed analysts forecast average cash copper on the LME at $7,050 a tonne for 2014 and nickel at $15,367.50 ($6.97/lb). – source
For the first quarter of calendar year 2014, we forecast an LME cash price of $1,850 a tonne for aluminium, $7,220 for copper, $2,180 for lead, $14,200 for nickel ($6.44/lb), $25,000 for tin and $2,032 for zinc. – source
“I think there’s the potential for a January-February rally in nickel prices,” says Grant Sporre, a London-based commodities strategist at Deutsche Bank. He predicts nickel will average $16,875 a ton in 2014 ($7.65/lb), up 10% from his 2013 forecasts. – source
We see nickel trading within a range of $13,500-15,000 across the fourth quarter, averaging $14,300. Looking to 2014, production restraints should be countered by the ramp-up of new capacity outside China and greater availability of metal in LME-listed warehouses. Prices will remain suppressed next year, we feel, averaging $14,500 ($6.58/lb). – source
Bloomberg reported that yesterday, Citigroup Inc. raised its 2014 nickel price forecast from $16,375 to $17,000 per metric ton (MT) ($7.71/lb) due to its belief that “the Indonesian export ban is essentially being mispriced.” – source
The firm sees the metal averaging $14,750 per metric ton in the first quarter of the year ($6.69/lb), $15,000 in the second and third quarters and $15,250 in Q4. – source
Deutsche Bank is forecasting nickel prices to average $15,881/mt in 2013 and $16,875/mt in 2014 ($7.65/lb), before returning to average around $15,800/mt in 2015. – source

Metal production drops in end-September amid weak world prices – Metal output for the first nine months of the year slipped five percent lower amid sluggish prices of precious and base metals in the world market, the government said. – more

Overcapacity still a problem: MIIT – China’s industrial enterprises still face the problem of overcapacity, the country’s industry watchdog said Monday, noting that domestic demand will face downward pressure in 2014. – more

Commodities Set for First Drop in 5 Years as Corn to Gold Tumble – Commodities headed for the first annual drop in five years as supply exceeded demand for corn to sugar to nickel and after investors lost faith in precious metals as a store of value amid signs economies are improving. – more

Natgas tops gains in 2013; gold faces biggest loss since 1981 – more

Courtesy AISI – In the week ending December 28, 2013, domestic raw steel production was 1,773,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 74.0 percent. Production was 1,785,000 net tons in the week ending December 28, 2012, while the capability utilization then was 71.7 percent. The current week production represents a 0.7 percent decrease from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending December 28, 2013 is up 2.3 percent from the previous week ending December 21, 2013 when production was 1,733,000 net tons and the rate of capability utilization was 72.3 percent.

Morning Nickel Price Statistics & Figures

Today’s almost official prices here / Yesterday’s actual LME official prices here or here
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price – available here or here (updated)
India MCX Nickel Price – more more
100 Years of Stainless Steel Video – online here
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