Stainless Steel News and Nickel Prices, LME Nickel Price, Stainless Steel News – Molybdenum – World Metal Pricing and Market Conditions

  Daily Nickel/Stainless Roundup

• Today’s official LME nickel closing prices – cash – $14.06/lb 3 month buyer – $14.29/lb (5.67% lower than 1/1/07)
• Baltic Dry Index – plus 10 to 10,994.
• LME nickel inventories – movement shifted back to Europe. plus 450 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 252 tonnes from Rotterdam warehouse, minus 12 tonnes from Liverpool, Great Britain warehouse. Cancelled warrants slip 1/2%.
• China was the big story of the day – again. With a GDP running at 11-1/2%, and news from Reuters that stainless steel producers have left their stores of refined nickel run dry (see first story below), nickel bounced today. The US new housing report was disappointing, but not overly alarming. Most traders are betting on a rate cut by the US Fed next week, so as that meeting nears, expect further volatility as traders play cat and mouse. Base metals were green across the board, with nickel gains taking a momentary pause before the US report was made public, then returning to nearly match its early morning trading peak. US consumer confidence is out tomorrow, which may or may not have an effect on trading psyche in the US, but should not have any bearing on London metals trading. Did the fundamentals change today? No. But the news from Asia was definitely in the bulls favor. Inventories of nickel in LME warehouses are now greater than they were at anytime last year. Three month nickel ended the day at $14.33/lb ($31,600/tonne)       
• Dow Jones Closing Metals Report – more

  China faces a shortage of spot refined nickel due to fewer imports and stronger demand from stainless steel mills, traders said on Thursday. – more

  Service center inventories of steel and aluminum products continued their year-over-year decline in August, and shipments of both metals also fell during the month from 2006 levels, according to the latest Metals Activity Report from the Metals Service Center Institute, Rolling Meadows, Ill. – more

  Major Chinese stainless steel mills will raise prices for core products by RMB 500 ($66.76) per tonne in November from the October price level in response to recent rises in nickel prices. – more

  Russia is becoming a major customer of Australian nickel exports – more (Russia buying nickel ore from Australia to ship to Finland – go figure!)

  Copyright/courtesy Reuters – “”In nickel, there is a clear case of demand destruction — we’re seeing that in reports from steel makers,” Corrigan (Sean Corrigan at Swiss-based fund Diapason Commodities Management) said. And there is nickel mine supply coming on stream. “I would have thought that the recent rise in nickel prices was not really fundamentally supported, with physical demand still relatively soft, so I see potential for a correction,” Michael Widmer, metals analyst at Calyon, said. Analysts worry there could be further fallout for base metals as a sector from the crisis in global credit markets.”  

  Courtesy Platts – “With “not a great deal of fundamental news out over the last few days”, base metals players are looking everywhere for clues as to movement, according to a trader with a London Metal Exchange ring dealing member.”

  Strong demand of more than 4 percent a year and stagnant supplies will boost prices of molybdenum, prized for its ability to harden stainless steel. – more

  From China media – “During the first 9 months of this year, Taigang Stainless production of cold-rolled stainless steel rose 79.27%, cold plate output grew 37.47%.” “Stainless steel company Nippon Steel (NSSC) officials have said the company will resume full production next week at its Hikari factory.” “European Commission Secretary General Dzurek told by Chinese State Development and Reform Commission that China wants to reduce iron and steel production capacity by 20%. China is very nervous about EU anti-dumping tariff’s. Article does not make clear if this statement is a general remark, or specific to exports to the EU.”

  A huge steel plant which is Beijing’s worst polluter has pledged to drastically cut production next summer so that the 2008 Olympic Games can enjoy better air quality. – more

  Morning Indicator (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling up by $.23/lb . Market is trading off earlier high’s, with markets watching for reaction to US new housing starts report due out later this morning. Yesterday’s markets fell on dismal house sales, but by afternoon the Dow had recovered nearly all of its losses on the day on rumors floating around the Fed would cut interest rates a week earlier. While we feel this is a huge stretch even for a rumor, the market bought it and reacted positively. The rumor also drove the dollar lower, which in turn added positive sentiment to metals, which got an additional boost this morning by fresh economic reports out of China showing that country has yet to slow down its blistering growth. Lot of news this morning – so pick what interests you.
• Bloomberg – more

  Standard Bank – Commodities Research Weekly – pdf here

  New nickel projects will inject a further 275,000 tonnes of the metal into global markets by 2013, but supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight despite the additional volumes, according to a commodities researcher. – more

  News Bites – “China’s industrial output up 18.9 pct y-o-y in September” “China’s GDP up 11.5% in first nine months”  “With shipping freight rates and local railway charges rising sharply last month, Indian iron ore prices (high grade) in the spot market have hit a record high of $175 a tonne.” “China’s output of medium and heavy plate rose by 40 percent year-on-year in the first nine months of 2007, according to the latest figures from China’s Statistics Bureau.” “Major Chinese stainless steel mills will raise prices for core products by RMB 500 ($66.76) per ton in November from the October price level in response to recent rises in nickel prices” “China produced a total 362.73 million tons of crude steel during the first nine months of 2007, up 17.6 percent from the same period last year, with September production alone reaching 42.71 million tons, up 2.72 percent from August, according to statistics released today by the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA).” “Stainless steel sales within Brazil are expected to grow some 10% this year versus 2006 to 220,000t, local news agency AE-Setorial reported based on data from industry association Núcleo Inox.”

  SMM Weekly Review and Forecast – “Shanghai nickel spot goods holders wanted to follow the rallying trend of nickel on LME, but domestic consumers would like to wait and did not want to buy at high price. It was difficult to keep steady because of wide consolidation on LME.”

  China’s exports and imports of refined lead, zinc, tin and nickel as well as concentrates in September and the first nine months of 2007, as reported in official customs figures. – more

  Samancor Chrome Ltd., which produces about a fifth of the world’s ferrochrome, said it’s pushing customers to pay more for supplies, while most of its peers have agreed to keep prices at a record high for the fourth quarter. – more

  According to a recent International Nickel Study Group announcement China’s demand for nickel and nickel containing products is set to boost global primary nickel consumption by 8.9% to 1.47 million tonnes next year from 1.35 million tonnes this year. – more

  First production mining is underway in west Tasmania at Allegiance Mining’s Avebury underground mine, which is expected to produce the world’s highest-grade nickel concentrate. – more

  Indian Jindal Stainless plans to spend 100 million dollars for the construction of the steel plant in the northwest of Russia capacity of 400,000 tons of stainless steel a year, told Reuters Representative Jindal in Russia Mahendra Agarwal. Construction of the plant to the west of St. Petersburg will take a year from the date of approval of the project, which is expected in the next two weeks, said Agarwal.

  Courtesy ferrosilicon.net – “Notice from NDRC, MOF and SERC, local government must carry out the policy about preferential power tariff rate on classified enterprises, like ferroalloy and electrolyte aluminium producer. Before Oct 20, 2007, those preferential rate must be cancelled.”

  While the Government of South Africa has already suggested the South African companies concerned to enforce the regulations for exports of chrome ore, the matter to impose export duty is supposed to be under consideration. A promising duty is thought to be US$50 per ton. – more

  The biggest problem facing nickel ore exporters from the Philippines is freight costs to China, the chief executive of Toledo Mining Corp. PLC told Dow Jones Newswires. – more

  With 2008 iron ore contract price talks set to begin next month, analysts have been rushing to revise their price forecasts upward. Projected increases are generally in the neighborhood of 25%, but some are postulating hikes of as much as 50%, and one steel analyst suggested to Platts this week that prices could conceivably double. – more

  Acerinox SA said it posted net profits in the nine months to September 30 of 424.3 mln eur, up 56.4 pct from 271.3 mln a year earlier. – more

  JFE Holdings Inc., the world’s third- largest steelmaker, reported a 10 percent decline in second- quarter profit as freight charges doubled and costs increased for nickel, iron ore and manganese. – more

  BIR Stainless Steel World Mirror October – Michael Wright, ELG Haniel Metals Ltd, United Kingdom, Chairman of the Stainless Steel & Special Alloys Committee – “At the time of our previous Stainless Steel Mirror published in March 2007, we still anticipated global stainless steel production of over 31 million tonnes for this year, but warned of risks relating to the high nickel price of over US$ 50,000 per tonne and the effects this could have on substitution of austenitic grades by lower-valued material. We mentioned that experience had told us that a decline in the nick- el price would see stainless steel users and service centres quickly stop new orders, and also delay or even cancel existing orders. The dramatic fall in nickel prices experienced during the second quarter triggered this exact scenario. We now expect 2007 production to total no more than 28.6 million tonnes, which is almost the same as in 2006.”

  A European Union official said Wednesday he received assurances from China that it is trying to curb steel production, an announcement that could ease tensions between the two sides over soaring Chinese exports. – more

  October 2007 report – Bolt, Nut, Screw, Rivet, and Washer Manufacturing Industry in the U.S. and its Foreign Trade (1997-2009) – Abstract – “The industry’s revenue for the year 2006 was approximately $9 billion US dollars. The gross profit was around 30%. Market sizes for the bolt, nut, screw, rivet, and washer manufacturing industry are: aircraft fasteners, except plastics (including aerospace) (18.3%); externally threaded metal fasteners (except aircraft types) (41.6%); internally threaded metal fasteners (except aircraft types) (10.6%); nonthreaded metal fasteners (except aircraft types) (13%); products (except fasteners), cold/warm/hot-heading processes (8.5%); and bolt, nut, screw, rivet, and washer manufacturing, not specified by kind, total (8%). Import was valued at $3.68 billion US dollars from 86 countries. The industry also exported $2.44 billion US dollars worth of merchandises to 157 countries.”

  SteelBenchmarker reported that the US hot rolled band spot price for October 22nd 2007 dropped by 0.5% to USD 577 per metric tonne, FOB the mill after 4 consecutive rises, The World export HRB price dropped by 0.3% to USD 585 per tonne FOB the port of export for the fourth consecutive time. – more

  The Development of China Fastener Industry (Part 5) – here

  Today’s beginning nickel inventory

•   London Metal Exchange – plus 162 tons = 37,470 tonnes (2.69% – 1008 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 36,462 net stock level)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel – 267000-269000 RMB/t, minus 7000